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System Modeling of Sonoma County CO2 Emissions

The CLEAR model provides a systemic approach to understanding the relationships and feedbacks among energy use and CO2 emissions in various sectors in the County.

The interactive system dynamics model called “CLEAR” is being developed to investigate important natural and human systems involved in reducing emissions. The model is designed to track the interdependence of CO2 emissions across several sectors, as shown in the figure below. This page describes how the model works and how to use the model interface. Click here to go to the model.
The model is under development to simulate scenarios related to baseline energy use and the Sonoma County renewable energy portfolio that is under development as part of this RESCO project.

CLEAR diagram

In the demonstration version of the model shown here, two CO2 sources are modeled: transportation and electricity generation. Emissions from these sources are driven by demand from the populace, industry (commerce), and agriculture. Economic and population growth drive changes in demand. Policies for increases in use of renewable energy (wind, solar) and low-emissions transportation (hybrid cars, mass transportation) provide mitigation choices. Climate change in the form of increase in average daily temperature drives electricity and water demand.

CLEAR1

The first screen (above) shows the main results chart (initially blank). Choose changes in energy and transportation policies by using the sliders and click “run simulation”. Or simply leave the sliders at zero and run the simulation to see the results of a ‘business as usual’ scenario.

The second screen (below) displays the evolution of CO2 emissions through time, from 2000 to 2020, based on the policies set on the first screen. The lower panel displays the changing percentage of emissions by consumer group and by sector. Click on “copy data in main plot” to add this emissions curve to the main chart on the first page. Or click on “discard data and run again” to simply return to the first page to try a new simulation.

CLEAR2

This system dynamics model was built by Donatella Pasqualini (Los Alamos National Laboratory) using AnyLogic software. LA-CC-08-096

Model scenarios are described on the Scenarios Page.